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Olympic Medal Prediction via Adaptive Triple-Fusion: Combining AAC Model with ARIMA-State Space Dynamics

  • Authors：Wei Li, Zixin Wang, Qixiang Gao, Fenglei Yang*

  • Published in：CAMMIC 2025 (EI Indexed Conference), Full Paper (Poster Presentation).

  • Email：liwei008009@163.com

    图片

  • This poster presents a novel approach to predicting Olympic medal tallies using an Adaptive Triple-Fusion (AAS) model, which combines the AAC (senior Athlete-new Athlete-Country) model with ARIMA-State Space dynamics. The research integrates athlete dynamics and national trends, achieving a mean error rate of less than 5% for major nations in the 2024 Olympics. The framework leverages measure-theoretic probability and hierarchical Bayesian modeling to ensure robust predictions and interpretability.

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    缺失模块。
    1、请确保node版本大于6.2
    2、在博客根目录（注意不是yilia-plus根目录）执行以下命令：
    npm i hexo-generator-json-content --save

    3、在根目录_config.yml里添加配置： 

      jsonContent:
    meta: false
    pages: false
    posts:
      title: true
      date: true
      path: true
      text: false
      raw: false
      content: false
      slug: false
      updated: false
      comments: false
      link: false
      permalink: false
      excerpt: false
      categories: false
      tags: true